Breaking The Rules Of Dictation

Three Quarter Time Summary:

First thing let's make it clear; I see Hamas as genocidal bastards.

Secondly, I hope my son comes out of this alive.

As we are approaching what all the Israeli commentators consider to be the final act of this round of armed conflict, we can begin to draw some preliminary conclusions as to how things are panning out.

In the background we have the accepted Israeli perception that under Hamas's fundamentalist charter or whatever means they use to define and declare their "corporate" purpose and agenda they are unwilling to recognize Israel and are bent on Israel's destruction and our assumption is that there is no reasonable hope of negotiating coexistence in the foreseeable future.

In light of this, another consequential assumption is that they only understand force. This may or may not be true, but for the vast majority of us it’s a unilateral assumption. I'm sure that participants in groups like Combatants for Peace which facilitate meetings between individual protagonists would differ from that line of thought. But I suppose just like any other people in conflict, our "establishment", our government and your average guy in the street see the conflict and hear our narrative in a hostile binary language. It's either us and them. Either you're with us or against us.

But jumping from there to the present day Operation Protective Edge, a fundamental assumption on our side is that by the use of force we will punish and bring the Hamas government to its knees (and unfortunately this terminology grants them de facto recognition). According to our narrative, by the end of this round of conflict they are supposed to be defeated militarily, almost to the point of total surrender, politically isolated, bankrupt and reliant and therefore punished, prepared and willing to make TACTICAL concessions.

If you can bear the vulnerability, let's permit ourselves some skepticism. Hamas is not playing by the rules, and certainly not our rules. They have chosen a mode of fighting and terrain that most suits their means. We can get as infuriated and self-righteous as we want. We can explode out of frustration. But as it seems to be panning out, that is a grand part of the Hamas strategy. They may have miscalculated the extent of Israel's military punitive reaction to their last round of shelling, but not with respect to the bottom line. And that bottom line is that Israel is not willing, in terms of projected costs, i.e.  the loss of soldiers' lives and international reaction holding Israel accountable for the scale of  humanitarian crisis pursuant to a total invasion and clearing out of terrorist capabilities, to go all the way and force Hamas into total submission. Despite voices to the contrary in Cabinet and on the streets it seems highly unlikely that Israel will take the steps needed to annihilate Hamas, at least not now. According to the pundits, that's because Israel and it's allies, overt, covert and de facto including Egypt and Saudi Arabia, possibly the recognized Palestinian Authority, prefer the devil they know to the devil they don't; at least for the time being. (And note that when WE say, "For the time being," that's not considered dishonorable and hypocritical.)

So the bottom line is that Israel will allow the Hamas "state" to continue to exist. Up to this point we can tolerate Hamas's not playing by the rules because from our perspective and terms of reference we have won. From our perspective we are punishing them, whopping their hides, and they're going to think twice before they do this again. But as the pundits agree amongst themselves, the winning side will be declared not just on the "playing field" but as the dust settles, the real winner will become apparent according to the geopolitical consequences contingent on the military outcome and on diplomatic maneuvering. If the geopolitical consequences do not translate into long term peace and quiet for Israel, we may have trounced Hamas on the ground but the victory will be pretty much hollow if it doesn't precipitate strategic geopolitical advantages.

And in this very significant arena Hamas is not playing by our rules either. We are expecting them to concentrate on TACTICAL subjects like a ceasefire/hudna, civilian reconstruction and so on and so forth, so that both sides can plan their next steps in the ongoing conflict. But it looks like Hamas is refusing to play ball and they are insisting on talking about STRATEGIC issues like lifting the sea embargo and facilitating a normal flow of goods, parts and services into their territory. Their STRATEGIC aim is ostensibly humanitarian but it is also very much about building a legitimate economy and cementing their governance and legitimizing their authority. In as far as they can succeed in these aims they can claim to their constituency and the Palestinian people at large, if not the broad sweep of Arab peoples that armed resistance is in the long run, more effective than decades of treading water in barren go nowhere negotiations. They can claim that despite the sacrifices, their resilience, faith and determination and armed struggle eventually delivers. I don't like this narrative. I don't approve of it. It may be sickenly cynical, but as things seem to be playing out all that's irrelevant.

The game isn't over yet. But I wonder, have our government and basically our entire "establishment" misread the map, in the planning and preparation for the contingency of another round of armed conflict which we, and particularly our sons, are going through right now? Is their binary, punitive strategy just a lot of hot air and human sacrifices?  And if they have misread the map, how are they going to be able to translate our military victory into strategic collateral and justify or sons' going through a living Akedat Yitzchak (Binding of Isaac)?    

As of last night the Israeli press has been having a buttoned down heyday trashing the American foreign minister and of course at least impliedly Obama. But whether or not these two are a pair of out of their depth neighbourhood social workers, what is becoming apparent, as of this morning, is that once again our binary way of perceiving the world is leading us into conflict with our associates as well as with our neighbours. To put it succinctly in contrast to our patron's wishes and regional interests and let's assume the rest of the civilized world's too, Mr. Netanyahu apparently is unwilling and/or opposed to try to utilise the overt and covert alliances or meeting of interests between us and various "moderate" regimes in the Middle East and which have come into opaque light during Operation Protective Edge, as leverage towards a regional peace. Rather than prosecuting a regional peace he thinks he can leverage this shadowy alliance into a carrot and stick deal for Hamas, peace and quiet against economic development. Is he the realist while the rest of the world are just dreamers? Netanyahu as Churchill pitted against all the Chamberlains? There's at least one big difference. Churchill's great achievement, for all his foibles and chequered history, was in cowing the English establishment into standing up to totalitarian oppression in its most extreme form, while Netanyahu's struggle is to fool us all into inadvertently acquiescing to something founded on oppression and discrimination. This latest upcoming clash with the American Administration, on the face of things, points to the likelihood that the Netanyahu government is more interested in maintaining the status quo of de facto acquiescence to Israel's continued occupation and colonization of The West Bank as opposed to prosecuting a regional peace which would presumably include a viable Palestinian State. Unfortunately, and once again I pray that Netanyahu will surprise us with a Sharon moment, we are going to go into another round of binary, divide and conquer narrative, us against the world, including our patrons. For what? The continuation of a discriminating regime of martial law for the Palestinians and state subsidized and bolstered settlements for right minded, supra-enfranchised, Jews? 

I hope my son comes out of this alive.